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On The Money: The Real Estate Road Is A Tough One To Forecast

LOS ANGELES WAVE — As part of doing financial plans for clients, it is customary to ask what plans the owners have for the real estate in their portfolio.

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By John Grace

Recently, I left the office to see at the corner an SUV that had been turned upside down after apparently being struck by a small sedan. The police were already at the scene and it looked like both drivers and passengers were safe and calm on two corners.

I credit the benefits of technology that allows us to survive a car accident, no matter what we or someone else did to the cars. My friends in engineering tell me that the average new car has 16 or more computers on it to keep you safe that the driver may never notice.

John L. Grace

As part of doing financial plans for clients, it is customary to ask what plans the owners have for the real estate in their portfolio. One new client said, “I own five houses and when I retire I will sell all of them and use the money for my retirement.”

The answer we hear most often is that owners plan to sell in five years. The explanation is often “we won’t need the big house once the kids are gone, so we plan to sell it when it is convenient.”

“Mann Tracht, Un Gott Lacht” is an old Yiddish adage that means, “Man Plans, and God Laughs.” Rather than set some convenient, arbitrary goal, a better idea might be to study the buying behavior of ordinary Americans first and affluent Americans second based on age.

You have been taught that the three most important things to know about real estate, are location, location and location. That may be a great practice when buying, but what can help when selling?

We won’t get lost in the weeds of what to do with the money. That’s a separate decision. It may be that the property has served its purpose. If the mantra, buy low and sell high works with stocks, the same logic can be applied to other appreciated assets.

One new idea we have come across is for owners to sell the big house, rent in the same neighborhood and buy rentals in up and coming areas where prices are low that can benefit from having good public school systems.

The common practice to assess home values is to look at comparable sales. This refers to homes in the nearby neighborhood that are similar in size, condition and features as the home you are trying to buy or sell.

The challenge is the data is often comprised over the past six months. The best comps may be derived from looking at the homes that are currently ‘pending.’ A pending home is one where the buyer and seller have reached price agreement, so this information is a piece of live market data.

But our GPS system in our cars is not focused on the past. None of it. To see “objects on the road ahead,” the satellites are helping you see ahead of where you are now on the road.

The richest Americans, who often don’t feel rich at all, own most of the financial assets and have seen their wealth skyrocket in the “economic recovery.” But some of the Homer Simpsons of America who aren’t part of the 1 percent, were so completely devastated from the last crisis that they were either unable or unwilling to figure out how to participate in the “recovery” that things have not improved.

Much of the prosperity from the “economic recovery” is concentrated in cities like San Francisco, Seattle and Austin, the fastest growing western cities that happen to be technology centers.

Harry Dent observed “In August 2017, five states (and D.C.) saw significant year-over-year increases in foreclosure filings. Mississippi is up 9 percent, Vermont is up 12 percent, Louisiana is up 59 percent, Washington D.C.is up 67 percent, Wyoming is up 79 percent and Alaska is up 100 percent.”

Some of the hottest housing markets in cities like Denver, Austin, Dallas, Nashville and Columbus, that comprise nearly a quarter of the nation’s largest metro areas are seeing rising foreclosures.

“Even New York City is seeing foreclosure auctions explode to levels we haven’t witnessed since 2009,” Dent added.

According to me, it’s not about the prediction. It’s always about the preparation. To avoid regret, take the road less traveled which can be a lot less odorous than following the herd.

The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

John L. Grace is president of Investor’s Advantage Corp, a Los Angeles-area financial planning firm that has been helping investors manage wealth and prepare for a more prosperous future since 1979. His On the Money column runs monthly in The Wave.

This article originally appeared in the Los Angeles Wave.

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Black Press

Oakland Mayor Reads to Children at Bookout Block Party at Marcus Books Store

Booths lined the street with arts and crafts, and children participated in hands-on art projects. A large display of books was on display and each child chose his/her free book to take home. Food and snacks were available, and free water was encouraged to keep all hydrated.

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(L.to R.) Cherysse Calhoun and Blanche Richardson of Marcus Books join Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee with Indya McGuffin and Bean Tupou of Storyland Collective inside the store on Sept. 12. Courtesy photo.
(L.to R.) Cherysse Calhoun and Blanche Richardson of Marcus Books join Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee with Indya McGuffin and Bean Tupou of Storyland Collective inside the store on Sept. 12. Courtesy photo.

Floating bubbles greeted families on arrival at the Bookout Block Party held on Sat. Sept. 12 at 39th and MLK Blvd. in Oakland.

Sponsored by Marcus Books and Storyland Collective, a wonderland of activity for children stretched to Longfellow School while live music filled the air, courtesy of KWC Complex Jazz Group.

Booths lined the street with arts and crafts, and children participated in hands-on art projects. A large display of books was on display and each child chose his/her free book to take home. Food and snacks were available, and free water was encouraged to keep all hydrated.

A large area of turf was filled with huge bean bags for jumping, rolling, and sitting to listen as families crowded close to listen to Oakland Mayor Barbara Mayor Barbara Lee read a book out loud.

Of the numerous booths present were, “Claim Your Scholarship,” a program for Oakland Public School students and “VOLUNTEER NOW,” a program encouraging volunteers to help boost reading proficiency. Individuals sold their art and products. Free gifts were at many tables and a raffle was held.

The event with Marcus books culminated a summer-long program organized by Storyland Collective, a literacy arts organization bringing children’s ‘storytime,’ local authors, and art activities to Bay Area neighborhoods. Marcus Books is the oldest, independent Black-owned book store in the U.S., featuring books by and about Black people here and abroad.

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Black History

Tradition Comes to the Streets in 11th Annual Black-Eyed Pea Festival at the Freedom Farmers Market

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(L. to R.) Black-Eyed Pea Festival Director Wanda Ravernell with Barbara Lee and Winky Binky Dogs owner, Tyranny. Courtesy photo.
(L. to R.) Black-Eyed Pea Festival Director Wanda Ravernell with Barbara Lee and Winky Binky Dogs owner, Tyranny. Courtesy photo.

Mayor Barbara Lee stops by to support vendors, Winky Dinky Dogs owner Tyranny Allen

A streamlined Oakland Black-Eyed Pea Festival took place on Sat. Sept. 12 in the lower Temescal neighborhood on the blocked off street that connect Shattuck and Telegraph avenues.

An early start brought together vendor regulars from festival partner, the Freedom Farmers’ Market, and vendors who have supported the festival at its previous location at Marston Campbell Park.

Wanda Ravernell, the festival producer/director was on the verge of cancelling the festival because of funding limitations in May before reaching out to Elaine Smith, president of Farms to grow, Inc., which supervisors the market.

From its start in 2014, the festival has focused on the traditions of African American culture through music, food and art. That emphasis included fresh food vendors, particularly growers of African American legacy crops like black-eyed peas, yams, watermelon, collard greens and okra, which all originate in Africa.

To Fresno farmer Will Scott of Scott Family Farms, the Freedom Farmers’ Market allows him to bring those crops to the inner city – and support the nutrition of African Americans.

Shortly after the festival opened Saturday morning with prayers and salutes to the ancestors by Wakan Wiya Two-Spirit Drum and Awon Ohun Omnira, led M. Zamora and Otobaji Stewart respectively, 86-year-old Scott, the son of a sharecropper, announced that he will put other endeavors aside to dedicate the rest of his life to raise those foods.

Smith shared that Farms to Grow assists Black farmers in helping them overcome one of their main impediments to success – distribution – while creating alliances to help Black people maintain farmland and make it prosperous for younger generations to keep farming and farmland in the family.

As the morning progressed to afternoon, a steady stream of visitors drifted from booth to booth, chatting with vendors and each other.

Scott noted that a market day like this was what he was accustomed to in his youth, where the market was not just about buying things but also a place for valuable social exchange.

The social aspect became even pronounced shortly after midday when Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee stopped by to shop and visit with some of the vendors, including Ellen Bimpeh of Sankofa, and Ravernell who was selling T-shirts designed by Stewart.

Lee is also a fan of Winky Dinky Dogs, an eatery owned by Tyranny Allen whose second brick-and-mortar venture further anchors a hub of businesses at that corner.

As he has in previous years, Andre Thierry of Accordion Soul, closed the festival with a 90-minute set that brought young and the young-at-heart on their feet to dance in a line or as impromptu couples.

And, surprisingly, the man Allen refers to as the mayor of 45th Street, came out on cane and chair to sit by the curb in the sun and listen to music reminiscent of his Louisiana roots. His appearance seemed to echo Scott’s observance about the market: to bring people together.

The Freedom Farmers’ Market is located at 4521 Telegraph Avenue in Oakland and is open on the second and fourth Saturdays of each month until Nov. 14. For more information and to apply to be a vendor, go to https://www.farmstogrow.org/freedomfarmersmarket

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Black Press

Attorney General Rob Bonta Continues Opposition to President Trump’s Tariff Regime

“President Trump is so intent on raising the cost of living for Americans that he is willing to break law after law to continue his tariff regime,” said Bonta.

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Calif. Attorney General Rob Bonta. Courtesy photo.
Calif. Attorney General Rob Bonta. Courtesy photo.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, as part of a coalition of 25 states, filed an amicus brief in the Court of International Trade in Learning Resources v. Trump, a case challenging President Trump’s latest “unlawful” attempt to tax the states and American consumers through illegal tariffs, according to a media release issued by the California Department of Justice.

In the brief, Bonta argues the latest round of tariffs levied under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 are pretextual and are not targeted to address the purported harms of forced labor, as that statute requires, but instead are designed to re-create the tariffs already declared illegal by various courts.

Last month, Bonta and the coalition filed a lawsuit challenging the administration’s decision to impose these tariffs on over 80 countries that together account for 99.4% of all U.S. imports — costs that will be passed along to Americans already struggling with affordability.

“President Trump is so intent on raising the cost of living for Americans that he is willing to break law after law to continue his tariff regime,” said Bonta.

“Imposing these tariffs under Section 301 has nothing to do with forced labor and everything to do with continuing the President’s failed economic policy and reimposing the global tariffs that the Supreme Court invalidated,” he continued.

“We urge the Court of International Trade to declare the president’s tariffs under Section 301 illegal. Tariffs are taxes, and the American people cannot and should not shoulder the extra costs that come from the president’s illegal tariffs.” 

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Black Press

Neighborhood Empowerment Day in Deep East Oakland Brings Community Together After Recent Tragedy

Hosted by the 40×40 Council, the free, family-friendly resource fair featured health and wellness services, workshops, children’s activities, food, giveaways and local Black-owned businesses. Residents also connected with community organizations working to strengthen East Oakland.

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Vendors representing maternal health support at the 40x40 Neighborhood Empowerment Day at the Parker Community Resource Center in East Oakland. Photo by Carla Thomas.
Vendors representing maternal health support at the 40x40 Neighborhood Empowerment Day at the Parker Community Resource Center in East Oakland. Photo by Carla Thomas.

Families, residents and community organizations gathered at the Parker Community Resource Center on Saturday, Sept. 12, for the 40×40 Neighborhood Empowerment Day, transforming the site of a recent tragedy into a space for healing, resources, connection and joy.

Hosted by the 40×40 Council, the free, family-friendly resource fair featured health and wellness services, workshops, children’s activities, food, giveaways and local Black-owned businesses. Residents also connected with community organizations working to strengthen East Oakland.

The gathering came six weeks after a fatal shooting occurred at the Ney Avenue center on July 31. The violence happened shortly before 9 a.m. on the campus of the adult education center and claimed the life of 25-year-old Kimarii McLemore. A second person was injured.

McLemore was attending what was supposed to be her final day in an adult education carpentry class. The shooting deeply affected her family and traumatized students, staff members and residents who had viewed the center as a safe place where community members could pursue education, career training and a better future.

Neighborhood Empowerment Day offered residents an opportunity to return to the center in a spirit of unity and reclaim the space as an important neighborhood resource.

“Reclaiming the space after a tragedy means creating opportunities for people to gather, connect, experience joy and feel a sense of community once again,” said Tim Zenor-Davis, program manager at Roots Community Health. “After a trauma occurs, we see what happened, we acknowledge its impact, and we are continuing to show up.”

Throughout the afternoon, children and families participated in activities while residents received information about health, wellness and other community services. The event also gave local entrepreneurs and service providers an opportunity to connect with the community.

Complimentary meals included grilled burgers and tacos while a DJ played popular music. 

Guests received blood pressure and eye-sight checks. A space to exercise on yoga mats was provided while headphones with guided meditation offered a moment to slow down and reflect.

The 40×40 Council includes the Black Cultural Zone, Brotherhood of Elders Network, East Oakland Youth Development Center and Roots Community Health. Together, the organizations have worked to address community violence and the deeper systemic conditions that have affected generations of East Oakland residents.

The council’s work has extended beyond responding to individual tragedies. As part of the broader Rise East initiative, the collaborative has focused on reversing decades of economic disinvestment, systemic poverty, health disparities and the displacement of Black legacy residents.

The 40×40 area stretches from Seminary Avenue to the San Leandro border and from MacArthur Boulevard to the Bay. More than 30,000 Black residents live within the area, which contains Oakland’s largest concentration of Black residents.

Organizers said the area has continued to demonstrate resilience despite experiencing community violence, declining investment and a significant life-expectancy gap compared with wealthier parts of the region.

The council seeks to help reshape East Oakland into a vibrant, multigenerational community where Black residents can remain, return, heal, prosper and build power. 

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Black Press

Neighborhood Empowerment Day in Deep East Oakland Brings Community Together After Recent Tragedy

Hosted by the 40×40 Council, the free, family-friendly resource fair featured health and wellness services, workshops, children’s activities, food, giveaways and local Black-owned businesses. Residents also connected with community organizations working to strengthen East Oakland.

Published

on

Vendors representing maternal health support at the 40x40 Neighborhood Empowerment Day at the Parker Community Resource Center in East Oakland. Photo by Carla Thomas.
Vendors representing maternal health support at the 40x40 Neighborhood Empowerment Day at the Parker Community Resource Center in East Oakland. Photo by Carla Thomas.

Families, residents and community organizations gathered at the Parker Community Resource Center on Saturday, Sept. 12, for the 40×40 Neighborhood Empowerment Day, transforming the site of a recent tragedy into a space for healing, resources, connection and joy.

Hosted by the 40×40 Council, the free, family-friendly resource fair featured health and wellness services, workshops, children’s activities, food, giveaways and local Black-owned businesses. Residents also connected with community organizations working to strengthen East Oakland.

The gathering came six weeks after a fatal shooting occurred at the Ney Avenue center on July 31. The violence happened shortly before 9 a.m. on the campus of the adult education center and claimed the life of 25-year-old Kimarii McLemore. A second person was injured.

McLemore was attending what was supposed to be her final day in an adult education carpentry class. The shooting deeply affected her family and traumatized students, staff members and residents who had viewed the center as a safe place where community members could pursue education, career training and a better future.

Neighborhood Empowerment Day offered residents an opportunity to return to the center in a spirit of unity and reclaim the space as an important neighborhood resource.

“Reclaiming the space after a tragedy means creating opportunities for people to gather, connect, experience joy and feel a sense of community once again,” said Tim Zenor-Davis, program manager at Roots Community Health. “After a trauma occurs, we see what happened, we acknowledge its impact, and we are continuing to show up.”

Throughout the afternoon, children and families participated in activities while residents received information about health, wellness and other community services. The event also gave local entrepreneurs and service providers an opportunity to connect with the community.

Complimentary meals included grilled burgers and tacos while a DJ played popular music. 

Guests received blood pressure and eye-sight checks. A space to exercise on yoga mats was provided while headphones with guided meditation offered a moment to slow down and reflect.

The 40×40 Council includes the Black Cultural Zone, Brotherhood of Elders Network, East Oakland Youth Development Center and Roots Community Health. Together, the organizations have worked to address community violence and the deeper systemic conditions that have affected generations of East Oakland residents.

The council’s work has extended beyond responding to individual tragedies. As part of the broader Rise East initiative, the collaborative has focused on reversing decades of economic disinvestment, systemic poverty, health disparities and the displacement of Black legacy residents.

The 40×40 area stretches from Seminary Avenue to the San Leandro border and from MacArthur Boulevard to the Bay. More than 30,000 Black residents live within the area, which contains Oakland’s largest concentration of Black residents.

Organizers said the area has continued to demonstrate resilience despite experiencing community violence, declining investment and a significant life-expectancy gap compared with wealthier parts of the region.

The council seeks to help reshape East Oakland into a vibrant, multigenerational community where Black residents can remain, return, heal, prosper and build power. 



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Black Press

Oakland Launches Aerbits Program to Identify, Report Abandoned Trash

“Aerbits, which was approved by the Privacy Advisory Commission, uses modern technology and best practices to help our crews clear trash faster and more efficiently, while our targeted outreach and enforcement strategies address the root causes of dumping. Together, we are going to get the job done.”

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Aerbits founder Brian Johnson(left) and OaklandMayor Barbara Lee launch Aerbits in Oakland.
Aerbits founder Brian Johnson(left) and OaklandMayor Barbara Lee launch Aerbits in Oakland.

On Tuesday, the City of Oakland launched Aerbits, an innovative new program that deploys AI-assisted aerial imaging technology to proactively detect and report abandoned trash on streets and sidewalks – to support timely and effective removal of illegal dumping.

By shifting from a reactive, complaint-based system to data-driven proactive detection, the City can deploy cleanup resources faster, more efficiently, and more equitably to the areas in greatest need. 

Approved by both the Privacy Advisory Commission and the Oakland City Council, Aerbits is the latest addition to Oakland’s comprehensive strategy to eliminate illegal dumping from the Town.

“Oakland residents and businesses deserve clean streets and today we are one step closer to a safer, cleaner, and greener Oakland,” said Mayor Barbara Lee. “Our strategy strengthens eradication, education, and enforcement efforts across every neighborhood.

“Aerbits, which was approved by the Privacy Advisory Commission, uses modern technology and best practices to help our crews clear trash faster and more efficiently, while our targeted outreach and enforcement strategies address the root causes of dumping. Together, we are going to get the job done.”

The impacts of illegal dumping on Oakland are profound, disproportionately burdening historically disinvested communities while threatening public health, safety, and economic vitality.

The City is united in taking action to remedy it – with the mayor, Council, administration, Public Works Department, community groups and more coming together to make change.

In May, the City Council approved the Illegal Dumping Expenditures Action Plan, which approves and funds multiple actions – including Aerbits – to help remedy illegal dumping.

This past June, Oakland secured $9.2 million from the Crankstart Foundation to scale up operations like Aerbits and break the cycle of illegal dumping across Oakland.

The Aerbits aerial imaging system photographs public rights-of-way to pinpoint exact locations, estimate waste volumes, and classify types of debris. This enables City dispatchers to understand the problem and efficiently deploy the appropriate crew and equipment to each site.

Built with privacy at its core, the technology contains no facial recognition, no license plate readers, and uses no personally identifying information. Aerbits takes pictures of trash – not of people.

“I founded Aerbits because I saw a major gap in the data that was available to City crews on the streets, and I wanted our children to have a cleaner environment” said Aerbits Founder Brian Johnson.

“Aerbits enables cleanups to be timelier, more effective, and more equitable. By providing real-time comprehensive data, automating the creation of work orders, and improving closure of cleared tickets, we are removing the problems that occur when relying primarily on a complaint-based system,” he said.

Aerbits is the latest milestone in the series of actions the City is taking to implement the City Council-approved Illegal Dumping Expenditures Action Plan. Recent actions taken by the City include:

  • Stricter Enforcement: Enacted a new Illegal Dumping Enforcement Ordinance increasing penalties and holding vehicle owners responsible; hired additional Environmental Enforcement Officers equipped with updated citation technology; and worked alongside State Senator Jesse Arreguin on legislation that allows the City to boot vehicles tied to repeat dumping offences. 
  • Community Resources: Reinstated the popular “Bulky Block Parties” offering residents free, convenient ways to get rid of bulky waste, alongside expanded public education campaigns.  
  • Expanded Fleet Equipment: Obtained new heavy-duty Lightning Loader trucks that allow us to clean up more volumes of debris faster than ever before. 

Rebecca Kaplan is a former City Councilmember-at-large for the City of Oakland.

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